Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4286 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4286 PHX 06:01 → SJC 08:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2094 PHX 16:28 → SJC 18:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4286 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:01	SJC 08:06	2%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 1387 Southwest	PHX 07:46	SJC 09:51	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:20	SJC 12:22	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
WN 2016 Southwest	PHX 11:26	SJC 13:30	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2893 Southwest	PHX 14:36	SJC 16:41	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2094 American Flight history →	PHX 16:28	SJC 18:36	19%	7%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON