Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1535 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 2526 PHX 15:32 → SLC 18:25 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	3%	1%	0.4%	97%
F9 1440 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 05:55	SLC 08:48	3%	3%	0.8%	93%
WN 2355 Southwest	PHX 07:06	SLC 09:50	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	6%	2%	0.4%	95%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	7%	4%	0.5%	91%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SLC 19:43	8%	3%	0.4%	88%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:08	SLC 12:55	9%	4%	0.5%	100%
WN 4913 Southwest	PHX 10:26	SLC 13:11	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:20	SLC 15:58	10%	3%	0.4%	89%
WN 2489 Southwest	PHX 13:11	SLC 15:56	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 897 Southwest	PHX 15:11	SLC 17:57	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2907 American	PHX 15:58	SLC 18:47	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 15:32	SLC 18:25	17%	6%	0.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON