Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1828 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1828 PHX 07:26 → SNA 08:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2496 PHX 13:21 → SNA 14:47 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1828 Southwest	PHX 07:26	SNA 08:53	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3322 Southwest	PHX 09:08	SNA 10:34	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 4957 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:13	SNA 08:48	12%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 07:58	SNA 09:33	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:22	SNA 15:54	14%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 2146 Southwest	PHX 14:41	SNA 16:07	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1656 American	PHX 11:14	SNA 12:53	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2454 American Flight history →	PHX 10:19	SNA 11:49	15%	4%	0.6%	68%
WN 2957 Southwest	PHX 11:08	SNA 12:34	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 8839 Delta	PHX 09:37	SNA 11:00	17%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2471 American Flight history →	PHX 16:59	SNA 18:29	19%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 2496 Southwest	PHX 13:21	SNA 14:47	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON