Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2758 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2758 PHX 05:12 → STL 10:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 890 PHX 16:42 → STL 21:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	PHX 05:12	STL 10:11	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1452 Southwest	PHX 07:47	STL 12:47	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 2660 American	PHX 08:25	STL 13:31	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 133 Southwest	PHX 12:51	STL 17:52	20%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 16:42	STL 21:51	25%	7%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON