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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1025 American PHX 09:21 TPA 16:38 16% 4% 0.8% no record
WN 2678 Southwest PHX 09:26 TPA 16:36 17% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 29m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 7h 47m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385 9h 44m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 50m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718 2h 27m Dallas DAL 12:11 → TPA 15:51WN 670 7h 30m 100% 82%
FrontierDetails → PHX 06:40 → DEN 09:39F9 1376 1h 44m Denver DEN 11:23 → TPA 16:59F9 2748 7h 19m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 14m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 19m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 7h 45m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 7h 25m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON