tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 590 Southwest PHX 11:46 TUL 16:15 15% 3% 0.5% no record
MQ 3645 Envoy PHX 13:46 TUL 18:20 20% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 8h 08m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 12m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 18:25 → TUL 19:58AA 2662 9h 28m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 05m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 17m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 49m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 3h 11m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 32m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:37 → DEN 16:50UA 709 47m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 4h 50m 70% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON