Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3496 PHX 07:46 → TUS 08:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6205 PHX 15:33 → TUS 16:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3496 Southwest	PHX 07:46	TUS 08:44	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:30	TUS 08:25	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	TUS 09:44	11%	5%	0.5%	83%
OO 6366 SkyWest	PHX 10:20	TUS 11:19	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 6518 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:01	TUS 18:00	14%	6%	0.5%	74%
OO 6332 SkyWest	PHX 12:14	TUS 13:13	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 13:55	TUS 14:53	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 15:33	TUS 16:32	16%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON