Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2800 American	PHX 09:09	XNA 14:11	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:49	XNA 20:30	16%	4%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → XNA 14:17AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:31 → XNA 17:22DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	5h 37m	96%	86%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 40m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 05m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:31DL 1710	8h 17m	98%	84%
American Details →	PHX 10:19 → ORD 16:05AA 332	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:05 → XNA 21:01AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	8h 42m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	8h 50m	97%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	58m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON