Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1504 PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3122 PIT 19:46 → ATL 21:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1504 Delta Flight history →	PIT 05:45	ATL 07:25	5%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 1383 Delta Flight history →	PIT 07:05	ATL 08:50	5%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:50	ATL 13:35	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	PIT 13:57	ATL 15:45	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	PIT 16:55	ATL 18:48	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 3523 Southwest	PIT 16:21	ATL 18:07	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	PIT 18:13	ATL 20:05	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	PIT 19:46	ATL 21:31	10%	3%	0.6%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON