tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3499 at 07:01, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3499 Southwest PIT 07:01 AUS 09:12 3% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 18m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56UA 637 5h 50m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 20m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:36 → ORD 09:30UA 3461 · flown by Republic 2h 17m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 7h 05m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 7h 57m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:58 → ORD 07:39UA 1803 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 01m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 28m Dulles IAD 13:10 → AUS 15:37UA 2746 6h 07m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 6h 29m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m New York JFK 19:58 → AUS 22:46DL 1233 6h 42m 53% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON