Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 5690 PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1786 PIT 18:30 → BOS 20:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5690 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:00	BOS 08:00	5%	2%	1.1%	92%
DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:59	BOS 12:48	13%	3%	0.8%	87%
B6 1286 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 09:00	BOS 10:39	14%	5%	1.3%	83%
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:42	BOS 20:39	24%	10%	0.9%	81%
B6 2186 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 20:38	BOS 22:19	24%	15%	1.2%	79%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 14:25	BOS 16:20	27%	12%	0.8%	72%
B6 386 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 13:13	BOS 15:07	27%	16%	1.0%	74%
B6 1786 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 18:30	BOS 20:23	28%	19%	1.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON