Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 376 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 376 PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1715 PIT 18:34 → CLT 20:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 376 American Flight history →	PIT 06:01	CLT 07:36	8%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 2310 American Flight history →	PIT 10:20	CLT 11:55	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 384 American Flight history →	PIT 08:08	CLT 09:48	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1736 American	PIT 14:44	CLT 16:14	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1715 American	PIT 18:34	CLT 20:10	22%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON