Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4336 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4336 PIT 05:54 → DCA 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5094 PIT 18:27 → DCA 19:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4336 Republic	PIT 05:54	DCA 07:19	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
OH 5402 PSA	PIT 09:38	DCA 10:54	14%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 4757 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:01	DCA 14:19	20%	4%	0.6%	69%
AA 5094 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 18:27	DCA 19:43	24%	12%	2.3%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON