Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 762 PIT 07:01 → DFW 09:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1868 PIT 19:49 → DFW 21:56 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 762 American Flight history →	PIT 07:01	DFW 09:09	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 1583 American Flight history →	PIT 11:46	DFW 13:46	11%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	PIT 15:18	DFW 17:17	19%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	PIT 19:49	DFW 21:56	20%	8%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON