Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3486 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 3486 PIT 06:31 → EWR 08:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3587 PIT 19:21 → EWR 20:56 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3486 Republic	PIT 06:31	EWR 08:07	6%	2%	2.1%	no record
UA 3513 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:30	EWR 09:06	7%	2%	2.1%	99%
UA 3560 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:12	EWR 10:43	10%	3%	1.5%	93%
YX 3559 Republic	PIT 18:07	EWR 20:07	32%	9%	1.7%	no record
YX 3434 Republic	PIT 16:17	EWR 17:52	33%	9%	1.4%	no record
YX 3587 Republic	PIT 19:21	EWR 20:56	36%	8%	1.8%	no record
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 15:13	EWR 17:00	14%	11%	12.5%	86%
UA 4403 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 11:26	EWR 12:58	19%	10%	4.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON