Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4587 PIT 06:08 → JFK 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 5775 PIT 12:10 → JFK 13:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4587 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:08	JFK 07:46	6%	2%	1.1%	93%
B6 1198 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 06:25	JFK 07:57	7%	4%	1.4%	89%
YX 5788 Republic	PIT 07:20	JFK 08:58	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 4568 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 12:13	JFK 13:55	14%	5%	1.1%	86%
YX 5775 Republic	PIT 12:10	JFK 13:48	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
DL 5085 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 17:04	JFK 18:55	48%	34%	12.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON