tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3511 Southwest PIT 06:43 LAS 08:21 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1793 Southwest PIT 19:21 LAS 20:55 17% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 37m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 58m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 35m Dulles IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:54UA 1323 7h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 46m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 57m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36AA 376 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 10:38 → LAS 12:17AA 2470 9h 16m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 09:59UA 1765 3h 29m Denver DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493 8h 58m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 7h 47m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:40DL 919 8h 43m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 59m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 6h 47m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON