tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:50, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2055 United PIT 15:38 LAX 17:42 18% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 07m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 2h 21m Dulles IAD 09:39 → LAX 12:22UA 657 9h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 9h 10m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 1h 35m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 15m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:08 → JFK 07:46AA 4587 · flown by Republic 3h 14m New York JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3 10h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:26DL 301 8h 36m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36AA 376 1h 21m Charlotte CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995 7h 55m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 18:48 → LAX 20:16DL 996 9h 19m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 10m 64% 50%
JetBlueDetails → PIT 13:13 → BOS 15:07B6 386 47m Boston BOS 15:54 → LAX 19:14B6 1187 9h 01m 59% 44%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 1h 24m New York JFK 20:20 → LAX 23:38DL 752 9h 34m 61% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON