Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4610 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4610 PIT 06:09 → LGA 07:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4396 PIT 18:58 → LGA 20:36 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4610 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:09	LGA 07:39	7%	3%	2.1%	93%
DL 5753 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:05	LGA 07:33	7%	2%	2.1%	96%
YX 5815 Republic	PIT 08:12	LGA 09:50	13%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:01	LGA 11:39	15%	5%	1.4%	80%
YX 5786 Republic	PIT 10:18	LGA 11:56	16%	5%	1.4%	no record
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:00	LGA 14:36	23%	8%	1.2%	84%
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 15:35	LGA 17:06	30%	10%	1.6%	68%
YX 4433 Republic	PIT 15:41	LGA 17:19	31%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:58	LGA 20:36	34%	12%	2.1%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON