Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3513 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3513 PIT 05:26 → MCO 07:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3517 PIT 18:57 → MCO 21:14 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3513 Southwest	PIT 05:26	MCO 07:44	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3514 Southwest	PIT 09:11	MCO 11:29	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3458 Southwest	PIT 10:51	MCO 13:09	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3819 Frontier Flight history →	PIT 14:28	MCO 16:55	18%	9%	4.8%	75%
WN 3516 Southwest	PIT 16:22	MCO 18:40	22%	9%	1.7%	no record
WN 3517 Southwest	PIT 18:57	MCO 21:14	23%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON