Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2313 at 06:15, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2313 American Flight history →	PIT 06:15	MIA 09:08	11%	3%	0.9%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 12m	98%	86%
United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 29m	99%	86%
American Details →	PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36AA 376	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	7h 10m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	98%	83%
American Details →	PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26AA 4531 · flown by Republic	1h 56m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 11:22 → MIA 13:40AA 2321	5h 40m	99%	81%
United Details →	PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859	3h 42m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	9h 32m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 44m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 58m	93%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	7h 15m	74%	62%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor	59m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 33m	51%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON