Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3678 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day YX 3678 PIT 05:18 → ORD 06:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 602 PIT 18:00 → ORD 18:41 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3678 Republic	PIT 05:18	ORD 06:12	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 3461 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:36	ORD 09:30	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 1803 United Flight history →	PIT 06:58	ORD 07:39	12%	3%	1.1%	89%
UA 455 United Flight history →	PIT 10:54	ORD 11:42	12%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:37	ORD 12:29	13%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:55	ORD 08:42	13%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 4525 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:14	ORD 11:00	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 640 American	PIT 06:33	ORD 07:18	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 2671 American	PIT 20:54	ORD 21:52	24%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 3577 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:11	ORD 16:58	26%	6%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
UA 2180 United Flight history →	PIT 14:10	ORD 14:55	27%	8%	1.0%	75%
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:50	ORD 20:29	32%	14%	1.6%	75%
AA 2675 American	PIT 16:07	ORD 16:51	32%	10%	1.3%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	PIT 18:00	ORD 18:41	40%	11%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON