tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3481 Southwest PIT 19:51 PHX 21:09 20% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36AA 376 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 8h 03m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 33m Dulles IAD 08:51 → PHX 10:40UA 709 7h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 7h 46m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 1h 22m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 19m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:08 → CLT 09:48AA 384 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 13:08 → PHX 14:43AA 1044 9h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:08 → JFK 07:46AA 4587 · flown by Republic 1h 12m New York JFK 08:58 → PHX 11:14AA 1186 8h 06m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → PIT 10:20 → CLT 11:55AA 2310 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 14:44 → PHX 16:16AA 1711 8h 56m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 46m 71% 59%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor 1h 59m New York JFK 20:55 → PHX 23:37DL 784 9h 33m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON