tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history → PIT 08:00 RDU 09:26 4% 2% 0.6% 93%
YX 4742 Republic PIT 16:23 RDU 17:58 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 5h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 37m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36AA 376 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 10:21 → RDU 11:28AA 2688 5h 27m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Dulles IAD 08:20 → RDU 09:37UA 203 3h 31m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 4h 30m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 7h 00m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:58 → ORD 07:39UA 1803 3h 09m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 03m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 6h 28m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 1h 06m Chicago ORD 16:01 → RDU 19:11UA 2091 5h 01m 75% 59%
DeltaDetails → PIT 14:25 → BOS 16:20DL 5731 · flown by Republic 55m Boston BOS 17:15 → RDU 19:37DL 2782 5h 12m 71% 48%
DeltaDetails → PIT 13:00 → LGA 14:36DL 5694 · flown by Republic 54m New York LGA 15:30 → RDU 17:35DL 5109 · flown by Endeavor 4h 35m 69% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON