Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2820 United Flight history →	PIT 07:00	SFO 09:26	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 436 United Flight history →	PIT 17:23	SFO 19:51	27%	13%	0.6%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	2h 27m Dulles	IAD 09:45 → SFO 12:29UA 1773	9h 23m	100%	85%
JetBlue Details →	PIT 06:25 → JFK 07:57B6 1198	2h 33m New York	JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215	10h 43m	98%	82%
American Details →	PIT 06:08 → JFK 07:46AA 4587 · flown by Republic	2h 43m New York	JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149	10h 46m	99%	82%
United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Dulles	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	10h 08m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 35m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	2h 11m Boston	BOS 10:11 → SFO 13:45DL 860	10h 45m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495	9h 00m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	7h 37m	72%	57%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	6h 57m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON