Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3550 at 06:51, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3550 Southwest	PIT 06:51	STL 07:43	3%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 58m	98%	90%
American Details →	PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:36AA 376	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → STL 09:50AA 2497	4h 49m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845	2h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	6h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	5h 16m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	7h 08m	99%	83%
United Details →	PIT 06:58 → ORD 07:39UA 1803	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044	6h 37m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 12:25 → DTW 13:36DL 5303 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	5h 59m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 13:01 → DCA 14:19AA 4757 · flown by Republic	47m Washington	DCA 15:06 → STL 16:49AA 3066	4h 48m	72%	55%
United Details →	PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 15:59 → STL 17:27UA 4416 · flown by GoJet	4h 17m	74%	45%
United Details →	PIT 16:11 → ORD 16:58UA 3577 · flown by Republic	57m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet	4h 12m	69%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON