Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3525 at 05:01, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 3525 PIT 05:01 → TPA 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1184 PIT 13:41 → TPA 16:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3525 Southwest	PIT 05:01	TPA 07:33	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
MX 1881 Breeze	PIT 10:19	TPA 12:50	22%	6%	4.4%	no record
WN 3460 Southwest	PIT 20:31	TPA 23:03	24%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 1184 Southwest	PIT 13:41	TPA 16:13	25%	9%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON