Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3019 PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1013 PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3019 Delta Flight history →	PNS 06:00	ATL 08:15	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3129 Delta Flight history →	PNS 07:00	ATL 09:17	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3067 Delta Flight history →	PNS 08:01	ATL 10:15	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	PNS 11:57	ATL 14:14	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	PNS 09:22	ATL 11:35	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	PNS 18:08	ATL 20:35	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	PNS 13:54	ATL 16:13	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	PNS 16:18	ATL 18:35	7%	2%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON