tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 25m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 54m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 49m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 6h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 5h 22m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → AUS 20:22DL 1170 6h 28m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081 5h 49m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → PNS 11:32 → DFW 13:34AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 6h 50m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON