Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1092 United	PNS 14:17	DEN 16:21	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2443 Frontier Flight history →	PNS 15:18	DEN 17:41	16%	5%	0.9%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	6h 05m	97%	86%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 51m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	8h 17m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	7h 57m	100%	84%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 10:51 → DEN 12:26AA 1662	8h 04m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	6h 59m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 49m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:02 → DEN 16:09DL 493	7h 47m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON