Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3982 PNS 11:32 → DFW 13:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2328 PNS 15:42 → DFW 17:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 11:32	DFW 13:34	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
OH 5499 PSA	PNS 06:57	DFW 09:00	12%	6%	1.7%	no record
MQ 4114 Envoy	PNS 18:06	DFW 20:07	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2863 American	PNS 13:55	DFW 16:07	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2328 American Flight history →	PNS 15:42	DFW 17:58	19%	8%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON