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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 11m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747 5h 18m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 28m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 08m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PNS 11:32 → DFW 13:34AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:05 → MCI 18:46AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:52DL 3023 5h 34m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → MCI 18:55DL 1470 6h 58m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON