Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, F9 4662 at 14:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 4662 Frontier Flight history →	PNS 14:06	MCO 16:53	17%	8%	4.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	3h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 00m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	5h 33m	99%	85%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → MCO 12:34AA 1576	6h 12m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → MCO 14:30DL 1576	4h 08m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 51m	100%	80%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	48m Houston	IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310	5h 00m	90%	79%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA	1h 37m Washington	DCA 11:01 → MCO 13:33AA 1153	6h 33m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON