Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3386 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3386 PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3719 PNS 19:14 → MIA 22:09 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3386 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 06:00	MIA 08:49	10%	3%	1.3%	87%
MQ 3533 Envoy	PNS 11:02	MIA 13:57	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:14	MIA 22:09	21%	6%	1.8%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON