tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 658 at 16:25, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United PNS 16:25 ORD 19:03 21% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 6h 57m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 47m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 4h 10m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 5h 34m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 53m Houston IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124 5h 29m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 6h 13m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA 2h 06m Washington DCA 11:30 → ORD 12:40AA 808 6h 40m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → PNS 11:35 → IAH 13:30UA 4258 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 13m Houston IAH 15:43 → ORD 18:33UA 2775 6h 58m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 15m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PNS 12:11 → LGA 15:58DL 5156 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m New York LGA 17:00 → ORD 19:10DL 2503 6h 59m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON