Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5333 at 13:07, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5333 PSA	PNS 13:07	PHL 16:53	14%	8%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	5h 43m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 24m	98%	85%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	1h 24m Charlotte	CLT 09:42 → PHL 11:35AA 2565	5h 13m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 01m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	5h 15m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 42m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 26m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	5h 15m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON