Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3532 at 10:31, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3532 Southwest	PNS 10:31	STL 12:35	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	5h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	49m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	3h 43m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	6h 44m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	6h 11m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	5h 56m	99%	83%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 23m Houston	IAH 12:05 → STL 14:34UA 2042	7h 34m	99%	83%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 12:05 → STL 13:04AA 3096	7h 42m	98%	81%
United Details →	PNS 11:35 → IAH 13:30UA 4258 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 01m Houston	IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa	6h 07m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON