tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 3304 at 07:02, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3304 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 07:02 LAX 09:42 12% 7% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PSC 05:04 → PHX 07:44AA 5007 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Phoenix PHX 10:57 → LAX 12:35AA 2027 7h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 12m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 14:52DL 2974 7h 47m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → PSC 05:12 → DEN 08:48UA 480 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 8h 05m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 7h 30m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Seattle SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 7h 41m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 3h 08m Seattle SEA 17:10 → LAX 19:55AS 492 6h 59m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:12 → SLC 15:00DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 55m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 54m Seattle SEA 14:56 → LAX 17:25AS 458 4h 29m 48% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON