tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3484 at 05:18, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3484 SkyWest PSC 05:18 PDX 06:29 6% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 2471 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PSC 15:59 PDX 16:50 22% 6% 1.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 55m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:12 → SLC 15:00DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 6h 06m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Seattle SEA 16:00 → PDX 17:06DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 4h 34m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 07:02 → LAX 09:42AS 3304 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Los Angeles LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 6h 42m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m Seattle SEA 10:35 → PDX 11:41DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 18:04 → SEA 19:10AS 2366 · flown by Horizon 1h 15m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 3h 18m 92% 75%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 3h 57m Seattle SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon 6h 00m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon 1h 55m Seattle SEA 13:33 → PDX 14:27AS 1700 3h 54m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → PDX 18:36UA 1812 5h 01m 67% 53%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon 56m Seattle SEA 12:34 → PDX 13:28AS 488 2h 55m 63% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON