Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5007 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5007 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:04	PHX 07:44	6%	5%	0.5%	94%
OO 6244 SkyWest	PSC 15:22	PHX 18:02	17%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	5h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	9h 04m	97%	84%
United Details →	PSC 05:12 → DEN 08:48UA 480	1h 02m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	5h 43m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	5h 55m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	PSC 12:12 → SLC 15:00DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451	5h 55m	98%	78%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Denver	DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507	7h 22m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	6h 12m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	PSC 06:15 → SEA 07:20AS 2165 · flown by Horizon	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 09:49 → PHX 12:36AS 449	6h 21m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	46m Seattle	SEA 14:48 → PHX 17:34AS 744	4h 38m	32%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON