tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5578 at 13:35, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5578 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 13:35 SFO 15:44 32% 14% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSC 05:12 → DEN 08:48UA 480 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 52m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 48m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 32m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 07:05 → SEA 08:10AS 2418 · flown by Horizon 3h 32m Seattle SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655 6h 59m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 2h 34m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 5h 52m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → PSC 05:04 → PHX 07:44AA 5007 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Phoenix PHX 10:53 → SFO 12:58AA 3199 7h 54m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412 6h 39m 96% 68%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon 1h 42m Seattle SEA 13:20 → SFO 15:31AS 680 4h 58m 98% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON