tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1929 at 05:56, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1929 Southwest PSP 05:56 LAS 07:09 3% 1% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:08 → DEN 08:25UA 1010 1h 26m Denver DEN 09:51 → LAS 11:02UA 1767 5h 54m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:04 → DEN 12:26UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m Denver DEN 16:13 → LAS 17:28UA 2424 8h 24m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 55m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757 5h 55m 91% 77%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:52 → PHX 14:13AA 1884 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 17:08 → LAS 18:30AA 1505 5h 38m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → PSP 06:45 → SFO 08:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 10:42 → LAS 12:28UA 611 5h 43m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:40 → LAS 18:04DL 1690 5h 41m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:01 → DFW 11:02AA 2425 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777 7h 05m 95% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON