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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5542 at 07:26, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5542 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSP 07:26 LAX 08:30 15% 7% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 21m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:08 → DEN 08:25UA 1010 1h 37m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 26m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:04 → DEN 12:26UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 8h 11m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 6h 04m 91% 80%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 44m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → PSP 06:45 → SFO 08:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 7h 10m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:52 → PHX 14:13AA 1884 1h 27m Phoenix PHX 15:40 → LAX 17:13AA 1331 4h 21m 88% 72%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:37 → SFO 15:35UA 1430 2h 22m San Francisco SFO 17:57 → LAX 19:37UA 2282 6h 00m 93% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:37 → SFO 15:35UA 1430 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 4h 28m 67% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON