tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1497 Alaska PSP 06:56 SEA 09:41 16% 3% 0.8% no record
AS 1494 Alaska PSP 14:04 SEA 16:50 17% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:52 → PHX 14:13AA 1884 3h 42m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 13m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 43m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:04 → DEN 12:26UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 55m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:08 → DEN 08:25UA 1010 2h 59m Denver DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058 8h 06m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 6h 10m 96% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Portland PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 7h 27m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → PSP 06:01 → DFW 11:02AA 2425 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:17 → SEA 14:31AA 757 8h 30m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → PSP 06:45 → SFO 08:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m San Francisco SFO 12:10 → SEA 14:30UA 2744 7h 45m 99% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON