Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6052 PSP 06:45 → SFO 08:28 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest AS 3497 PSP 07:15 → SFO 08:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6052 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 06:45	SFO 08:28	17%	9%	0.7%	60%
OO 3163 SkyWest	PSP 11:42	SFO 13:27	20%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 2150 United	PSP 11:18	SFO 13:03	20%	13%	0.6%	no record
OO 3180 SkyWest	PSP 13:57	SFO 15:42	23%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 1430 United Flight history →	PSP 13:37	SFO 15:35	25%	15%	0.6%	57%
AS 3497 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 07:15	SFO 08:48	25%	11%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON