Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3535 at 10:21, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3535 Southwest	PSP 10:21	SMF 12:03	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 10m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	5h 17m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	5h 53m	96%	82%
United Details →	PSP 09:04 → DEN 12:26UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	6h 06m	93%	77%
United Details →	PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 09:31 → SMF 11:18UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m	85%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON