Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1023 PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2147 PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1023 Delta Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ATL 08:35	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 1813 Delta	PVD 08:45	ATL 11:20	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	PVD 17:24	ATL 20:14	13%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	PVD 13:27	ATL 16:04	13%	4%	0.8%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON