tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4095 at 12:41, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4095 Southwest PVD 12:41 BNA 14:17 13% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295 6h 04m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 25m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 39m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360 2h 33m Chicago ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362 7h 08m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 20m 90% 79%
AmericanDetails → PVD 11:25 → CLT 13:43AA 1569 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 16:55 → BNA 17:27AA 519 7h 02m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → PVD 10:25 → IAD 12:01UA 4609 · flown by GoJet 49m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 24m 84% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON