Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4714 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 4714 PVD 05:56 → BWI 07:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2785 PVD 17:46 → BWI 19:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4714 Southwest	PVD 05:56	BWI 07:32	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 3589 Southwest	PVD 07:12	BWI 08:47	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 3539 Southwest	PVD 08:52	BWI 10:26	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 3409 Southwest	PVD 12:37	BWI 14:11	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1180 Southwest	PVD 16:31	BWI 18:06	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2785 Southwest	PVD 17:46	BWI 19:22	14%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON