Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 608 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 608 PVD 08:31 → DCA 10:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5173 PVD 17:01 → DCA 18:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 608 Southwest	PVD 08:31	DCA 10:08	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 863 American	PVD 06:00	DCA 07:45	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
OH 5023 PSA	PVD 09:08	DCA 10:44	16%	6%	3.4%	no record
WN 2573 Southwest	PVD 16:56	DCA 18:34	21%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 12:12	DCA 13:59	22%	9%	2.4%	71%
AA 2641 American	PVD 15:28	DCA 17:13	25%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 20:53	DCA 22:42	25%	10%	3.7%	52%
OH 5173 PSA	PVD 17:01	DCA 18:38	28%	10%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON